Jobs data and earnings reports dominate economic week ahead of midterms

A dense slate of economic data releases will unfold over the next several days, offering detailed snapshots of the American labor market and corporate profitability.

The Labor Department will publish its September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on Tuesday. This report tracks vacancies and layoffs across sectors including healthcare, retail, and manufacturing. Economists anticipate the numbers will show a slight increase in job openings, which have held within a stable range for much of the year.

Investors and analysts will also closely monitor the weekly unemployment claims report on Thursday. This metric serves as a direct indicator of recent layoffs. On Friday, the department will release the monthly employment report, detailing hiring activity across various industries for October. Forecasters expect little movement in hiring levels compared to the disappointing September figures. Recent revisions to prior monthly data have also removed additional jobs from the official counts.

These labor market updates arrive at a time of heightened economic pressure. Inflation continues to squeeze household budgets, while the Federal Reserve balances its mandate to control prices with its goal of maximizing employment. The central bank is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate again before the year ends. Higher rates typically slow economic growth, which can negatively impact the jobs market.

Sector-specific reports from the Institute for Supply Management will also release this week. The manufacturing index will drop on Monday, and the services sector index will follow on Wednesday. Both reports are expected to show continued, albeit slight, expansion of the economy. Business commentary within these reports indicates that higher costs are a primary concern for operators. These cost pressures stem from an ongoing trade conflict with global partners and the surging price of oil caused by the U.S. war with Iran.

The conflict, which began in February, has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global oil shipments. This disruption has driven up fuel prices, increasing shipping costs for goods ranging from food to clothing. Rising fuel costs remain the main driver of inflation for many households and businesses. The erratic nature of U.S. trade policy has also made it difficult for companies to plan ahead, as material costs fluctuate without clear direction.

Corporate earnings reports will provide further insight into how businesses are navigating these conditions. Companies in the travel, technology, and apparel sectors will release their quarterly results and future forecasts during this period. Clorox will report its financials on Monday. Advanced Micro Devices, Super Micro Computer, and Booking Holdings are scheduled to report on Tuesday. Expedia follows on Wednesday, while Tapestry and Ralph Lauren will publish their results on Thursday.

Financial markets are currently projecting a 30 percent increase in overall profits for the S&P 500. Nearly half of the companies in the index have already disclosed their latest financial results. These upcoming reports will help clarify whether corporate profits are holding steady against the backdrop of rising costs and changing consumer spending habits in the weeks leading up to the November 3 midterm elections.