EU projects 28th member by 2028, offers Serbia reset after election

Montenegro is on track to become the 28th member of the European Union in 2028, according to the bloc's annual enlargement report released in Brussels.

The report provides a specific timeline for the bloc's next phase of expansion. The European Commission stated that Albania and Moldova are positioned to join the following year, in 2029. Ukraine is listed as a later entrant, with the body noting that the country is unlikely to meet the necessary conditions for joining before the end of the decade.

Serbia faces a critical decision point following its recent election. The European Commission offered the country a fresh start if the student-led movement that defeated President Aleksandar Vucic forms a government willing to strengthen democratic institutions. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos told lawmakers that the new administration has an opportunity to turn the page and advance on the accession path.

The shift in Belgrade comes after a period of tension between Serbia and the EU. Under Vucic, who was defeated last month, democratic standards deteriorated despite technical progress in policy talks. The Commission previously warned in April that Serbia could lose access to approximately 1.5 billion euros, or 1.7 billion dollars, in funds if it failed to halt this backsliding. The bloc also expressed concern after a public funeral for war crimes convicts in Belgrade in September.

Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission President, emphasized the momentum of the expansion. She stated that the progress achieved by some candidates over the last year allows the EU to turn the promise of enlargement into reality. Von der Leyen described the process as building a more complete and stronger Union step by step.

The Commission introduced a new roadmap for each country seeking membership. This addition aims to clarify the path forward after a long pause in expansion, with the last country to sign up being Croatia 13 years ago. The prospect of joining has served as a powerful driver for reform in the Western Balkans, where ethnic tensions remain high. Six countries from the region currently wish to join the bloc.

The timeline for other candidates varies based on their current political stability. Moldova is expected to wind up its negotiations in early 2028, paving the way for accession the following year. Ukraine is urged to accelerate reforms to meet its objective of closing negotiations by the end of 2028, which makes a seat at the EU table unlikely before 2030.

Bosnia-Herzegovina and North Macedonia face immediate hurdles that delay their entry. Bosnia's coalition government is described as mostly dysfunctional, while North Macedonia requires constitutional changes. Kosovo has not yet been granted candidate status, and negotiations with Georgia and Turkey remain at a standstill due to democratic backsliding in both nations.