Report: US intelligence estimates Iran retains up to 2,500 ballistic missiles

US intelligence estimates that Iran still holds between 1,500 and 2,500 ballistic missiles, The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday, citing officials. The report appeared hours before Iran claimed responsibility for a drone attack targeting an American military base in Bahrain early Sunday.

Officials cautioned that the estimate carried low confidence because Tehran’s weapons stocks are difficult to track. Nevertheless, they said Iran clearly retained a substantial missile arsenal. According to the Journal, the apparent scale of those reserves has influenced discussions within President Donald Trump’s administration about whether to launch an attack on Iran. Israeli officials separately believe Iran possesses more than 1,500 ballistic missiles.

Fighting with Israel and the United States damaged Iran’s missile inventories and production capabilities, but an Israeli official told the Journal that Tehran was rebuilding and replenishing its weapons in preparation for further conflict. Iran unveiled another underground missile facility last week. An unnamed Western official told Bloomberg at the time that intelligence reports suggested Iran retained at least 1,700 ballistic missiles and was producing up to 50 monthly, despite the destruction of most of its conventional military in the joint air campaign.

Trump has reportedly told senior advisers in recent days that he could refrain from attacking if Iran and the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen undertake no further provocations against the United States. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose parliamentary majority was lost in the October 27 election, reportedly continues to favor US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

In Bahrain, explosions were heard early Sunday as sirens sounded and authorities issued social media warnings directing residents to shelter. These were the first such alerts since September. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the attack responded to hostile American actions, according to Fars news agency. State-run Press TV reported that the Guards claimed to have sent six drones toward US air defense radar at the Al-Rifaa helicopter base.

Neither US nor Bahraini authorities immediately confirmed that account. Bahrain’s military said its air defenses intercepted several Iranian aerial attacks before they reached their targets. An AFP journalist heard explosions at about 4 a.m. local time, while residents described another round of blasts around 6:30 a.m. The interior ministry urged people to stay calm and move to the nearest safe location.

Bahrain hosts the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet and is among Gulf states that have faced thousands of Iranian missile and drone strikes since the war started on February 28. Its foreign ministry rejected the use of Bahraini territory to settle disputes and said Iran bore full responsibility for the attacks and their consequences.

The confrontation has also affected shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has restricted passage and attacked vessels it says breached its rules. Tehran has sought to establish control over the waterway and pressure Washington. US Central Command said last month that it had helped Gulf countries export 1.5 billion barrels of oil through the strait since the summer.

Shipping attacks have increased in recent weeks. Data from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy recorded at least 10 vessels hit during November’s first 10 days, following 37 attacks in October, the highest monthly count since the war began.