Poll Shows Democratic Lead in Midterm Congressional Race

Registered voters in the United States currently favor Democrats over Republicans for control of Congress by 11 percentage points, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on October 26. The survey, conducted from October 21 to 25, indicates that 47% of registered voters would select the Democratic Party for their congressional districts, while 36% would choose the Republican Party. This 11-point gap is one point narrower than the result from a previous Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on October 19.

When the poll asked undecided voters which party they were leaning toward, the national race appeared tighter. With these leanings included, Democrats lead by 9 percentage points, with 50% support compared to 41% for Republicans. Eleven percent of registered voters said they did not know which party they would support if the election were held today.

President Donald Trump's approval rating rose by one percentage point to 32%, moving off a record low recorded in the prior week. This shift comes ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, where Republicans aim to retain their majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

The poll found that 73% of voters believe their cost of living is heading in the wrong direction. Inflation concerns have become a central issue in the race, particularly after gasoline prices rose following US military strikes on Iran in February. Prior to the conflict, polls showed voters preferring Republicans as the better stewards of the economy. The current data shows a reversal, with 37% of voters citing a better approach to the economy from Democrats, compared to 33% who picked Republicans.

Voter enthusiasm also differs by party. The survey reported that 46% of Democratic voters described themselves as very enthusiastic about the upcoming midterms, while only 30% of Republican voters shared that level of excitement. Among voters who appeared most likely to cast ballots, the preference for Democrats over Republicans stood at 9 points, with 53% favoring Democrats and 44% favoring Republicans.

Political analysts generally view the Democrats as having a strong chance of winning control of the House of Representatives. However, many believe the path to seizing the Senate is more difficult. While the generic ballot question provides a national view of party preference, it does not account for the specific district and state dynamics that often favor incumbents in the Senate.

The online survey polled 1,679 US adults, including 1,280 registered voters. The margin of error is 2 percentage points for all adults and 3 percentage points for registered voters.