South China Sea code of conduct pact unlikely as ASEAN leaders gather in Manila

A long-awaited agreement between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and China to manage tensions and prevent conflict in the disputed South China Sea is unlikely to materialise during the bloc's annual leaders' summit in Manila this week, analysts and officials say.

Negotiations over the proposed code of conduct have dragged on for more than 20 years. In 2023, foreign ministers agreed to work towards finalising the accord within three years, a deadline that fell in 2026, the year the Philippines took its turn as ASEAN chair. The Department of Foreign Affairs said negotiators have met at least once a month under Manila's leadership, but they have fallen short of consensus ahead of the summit.

"I just want to say that at this point in time, 80 percent of the document itself is finished," Foreign Affairs Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro said on Saturday, while acknowledging that some "salient" points still need to be ironed out. She has previously identified geographical scope as one of the contentious issues. Beijing insists it has jurisdiction over nearly the entire South China Sea despite a 2016 international ruling invalidating that claim, while the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia hold overlapping territorial claims.

Manila also wants the accord to respect the rights of countries outside the region, according to DFA spokesman Dominic Xavier Imperial, a significant demand given that half of the world's merchant ships pass through the waterway. China has consistently accused the United States and its allies, which regularly conduct freedom of navigation operations with the Philippines, of interference.

Aries Arugay, a political scientist at the University of the Philippines, said the host country is caught in a difficult position. "You can't win it because if you get a good document, you'll be accused of railroading or it would come across as self-serving. But if it's a bad document, the Marcos Jr administration will be seen as a weak government," he said.

The talks are unfolding against a backdrop of escalating friction between Manila and Beijing since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr took office in 2022. The China Coast Guard has repeatedly deployed water cannon against Philippine vessels, and maritime confrontations have resulted in collisions and, on one occasion, a Filipino soldier losing a finger.

In recent weeks, the two countries have been locked in a war of words. In September, Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro's public response to a handwritten note rejecting the 2016 ruling, reportedly from Beijing's military attache in Seoul, went viral. "Perhaps basic decency and behaviour is what China needs to do," said Teodoro, who has been barred from entering China. A month later, Beijing's ambassador to Manila, Jing Quan, told reporters that if China wanted to use force, "we may easily win. But no, we will not choose force. We love peace." Marcos said the remark "sounded like a threat," and senators called for the envoy's expulsion. In late October, China also accused Teodoro of a late invitation to the ASEAN defence ministers' meeting in Cebu, saying it could only send its Manila-based defence attache.

With just days before world leaders were due to arrive in Manila, diplomats from both sides stepped in. In a phone call, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged Lazaro to rein in politicians, saying the Philippines "should strengthen restraint over the relevant individuals and send a rational and unified voice on its policy toward China," according to a statement released by the Chinese embassy in Manila. Lazaro described the conversation as "frank and constructive," though the DFA later issued a statement saying it found public commentary by certain government officials "regrettable."

Arugay said the public spat has exposed divisions within the Marcos administration. "They're airing dirty laundry out there. It doesn't communicate coherence. It doesn't project a unified stance. This could have been an internal memo," he said.

Lucio Pitlo, past president of the Philippine Association for Chinese Studies, said the last-ditch diplomatic effort achieved its objective, with Chinese Premier Li Qiang now attending the summit in Manila. But he shares the pessimism about concluding the code of conduct negotiations. "I think with all the concerns about trade protectionism, the disruption in supply chains, economic issues will be very high in the agenda. I think it will be a tall order to get the code of conduct done."