College football bowl projections: Week 11 losses end CFP hopes for Houston, USC and other contenders

Week 11 of the college football season proved costly for a group of ranked contenders, with Houston, Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina and USC all absorbing losses that effectively ended their hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff. With two weeks left in the regular season, updated bowl projections now account for all 47 postseason games, including a revised 12-team CFP bracket.

The projected playoff field currently consists of four SEC teams, two each from the Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC, along with Notre Dame and the highest-ranked Group of Six team. In the projected first round, No. 12 Boise State would visit No. 5 Texas, while No. 11 Texas Tech would travel to No. 6 Miami.

Boise State strengthened its grip on the Group of Six spot even while surrendering 41 points to Oregon State and backup quarterback Maalik Murphy, because New Mexico lost at home to UNLV. Broncos quarterback Maddux Madsen threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns in his return to the lineup. Texas earned its fifth ranked win of the season at LSU, where Arch Manning's touchdown pass to Raleek Brown in the final seconds sealed the victory. The Longhorns close with Arkansas and Texas A&M and project as a 10-win team hosting a first-round game.

Miami rebounded from a loss at Notre Dame by holding off Duke, getting three second-half touchdowns from Javian Mallory. The Hurricanes sit two wins away from the ACC Championship Game and a possible top-four seed on Selection Sunday. Texas Tech has one fewer loss than BYU in Big 12 play, and a possible setback in the conference championship game may be overlooked by the selection committee.

Houston's stumble ranked among the weekend's most surprising results. The 14th-ranked Cougars allowed 42 points in a Friday loss at Colorado, closing any outside path of winning their way into the playoff, and they now project to the Cactus Bowl against Michigan. USC, ranked 18th, fell at Indiana behind three interceptions from Jayden Maiava and can finish with no more than nine wins. The Trojans project to the Las Vegas Bowl against Oklahoma, which owns 27 consecutive bowl appearances dating to the 1999 season, second nationally behind Georgia.

In the SEC, South Carolina's four-game winning streak ended with a 28-point loss at Arkansas, where the Gamecocks played without quarterback LaNorris Sellers and backup Cutter Woods committed three turnovers in his second career start. Kentucky dropped a 21-14 decision to Florida, which got 102 rushing yards and the go-ahead fourth-quarter touchdown from Aaron Philo. LSU's loss to Texas left Lane Kiffin's team still chasing its first ranked win of the season. The Gamecocks project to the Gasparilla Bowl against Tulsa, Kentucky to the Music City Bowl against Iowa and LSU to the Citrus Bowl against Ohio State.

Ole Miss, one of several three-loss teams inside the top 20 of the selection committee's second rankings, projects to the ReliaQuest Bowl against Penn State ahead of its rescheduled Sunday game at Oklahoma. The Rebels, who lost running back Kewan Lacy for the season to a shoulder injury, face the possibility of a 9-3 finish without a playoff appearance.

Elsewhere, Clemson could finish 6-6 after a home loss to Georgia Tech and projects to the Fenway Bowl against Memphis. Syracuse rallied to beat NC State 34-31 by outscoring the Wolfpack 21-3 in the fourth quarter and moved within one win of bowl eligibility, while Nebraska blanked Rutgers for its sixth victory. Florida State improved to 5-5 under interim coach Rick Stockstill with a 16-10 win at Pittsburgh. Mississippi State could receive a bowl invitation even without reaching six wins, with ESPN reportedly holding discretion to grant invites to fill available postseason slots.